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The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

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Wednesday, May 29, 2019 - 6:19pm

As discussed yesterday and again this morning, the Comex precious metals are very near a final bottom and turn for this low. However, do not be surprised if tomorrow brings a test of the most recent lows.

After a lengthy general discussion that includes a recap of the days events and...


Wednesday, May 29, 2019 - 11:49am
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After a three-week hiatus, John and Steve returned last evening to bring us up-to-speed with the latest on the New Cold War and "Russiagate".

As always, please try to find time to listen.


Comex Silver OI Oh My

There is no doubt that another major low is near.

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As projected in yesterday's podcast, Comex silver open interest did indeed surge on yesterday's washout. This makes the likelihood of a bottom here VERY high and draws near the end of this long downtrend that dates back to February.

The final number is +6,027 to 217,605 contracts. Keep...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 28

Tuesday, May 28, 2019 - 4:41pm

It was a day of deliberate and overt precious metal price manipulation. But, in the end, that's OK. Let the Leghounds do their thing. Why? Because we are now VERY close to a bottom and the next move higher will take prices right to the break out point.

For today,...

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Today's gold price manipulation is as bold as it is obvious.

Tuesday, May 28, 2019 - 10:37am

My elbow is slightly better after three days of no typing so, rather than the planned morning podcast, here's a morning post that's primarily typed left-handed!

All you need to know today is that it's Comex option expiration day for the front and "delivery" month of June. There are...

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It's like Christmas in May!

Tuesday, May 28, 2019 - 9:38am

Our friend, Ronni Stoeferle, and his team have just released this morning their annual report, "In Gold We Trust". You should be sure to stop what you're doing and read this report today.

Here is the link to the "compact" version:...

Special Weekend Podcast: Ed Karr, CEO of U.S. Gold Corp.

Saturday, May 25, 2019 - 8:00am

Like many of you, we're always on the lookout for interesting mining and exploration companies. Well, here's a new one for you to consider...U.S. Gold Corp.

Back on Friday, I had the pleasure to speak with Ed Karr, the president and CEO of U.S. Gold Corp. Ed's company is unique in that...

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Friday, May 24, 2019 - 5:40pm

It's time to call it a week, enjoy a three-day weekend and then prepare for what will be a volatile week next.

It's Friday, so after a general recap, we begin with the longer-term charts of the POSX:...

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Durably Terrible

The US economy appears to be dramatically slowing.

Friday, May 24, 2019 - 11:00am

The US economy continues to rapidly deteriorate as shown by yesterday's PMIs and today's Durable Goods report. The bond market shows this, as well, and now the "stock market" is struggling, too. That this is all leading to multiple fed funds rate cuts and a resumption of overt QE seems lost on...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 23

Thursday, May 23, 2019 - 5:23pm
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It was a very interesting day and tomorrow promises to be compelling, too, with the latest Durable Goods report. And then we get a three-day US market holiday weekend!

So, for today, just a lengthy general discussion with special emphasis on the bond market and these first three charts...

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20
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5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods